Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States: Robustpolicies put to the test

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve, as measures of real-time model uncertainty and examine the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. Model uncertainty turns out to be a substantial problem: key model properties di¤er in important ways across model vintages as do the optimized parameterizations of candidate rules. Among the rules considered are rules that eschew feedback on the output gap, rules that target nominal income growth, and rules that allow for time variation in the equilibrium real interest rate. Many rules that previous research has shown to be robust in arti…cial economies, would have failed to provide adequate stabilization in the real-time, real-world environment seen by the Fed sta¤. I identify certain policy rules that would have performed relatively well, and characterize their key features to draw more general lessons about the design of monetary policy under model uncertainty. JEL Classi…cations: E37, E5, C5, C6.